Photovoltaic cells have undergone three generations of technological development:
First Generation: Crystalline Silicon Technology
This is based on silicon as the core material, featuring technologies such as BSF, PERC, TOPCon, HJT, and IBC.
Second Generation: Thin-Film Technology
Represented by materials like Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS), Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), and Gallium Arsenide (GaAs), thin-film cells have struggled to compete with crystalline silicon due to lower efficiency and high costs (over $2 billion per GW of investment). Currently, their market share is less than 5%.
Third Generation: Perovskite and Organic Solar Cells
Dominated by perovskite solar cells, this generation has seen rapid development in recent years. It is considered a promising technology that may surpass crystalline silicon cells as the next breakthrough in photovoltaics.
Progress in Photovoltaic Cell Conversion Efficiency
Compared to crystalline silicon, perovskite cells offer higher theoretical efficiency and lower production costs. Single-junction and tandem perovskite cells have theoretical efficiencies of 33% and 45%, respectively, surpassing the ceiling for crystalline silicon. Economically, the long-term cost of single-junction perovskite modules is projected at 0.5–0.6 RMB/W, significantly lower than crystalline silicon, making it a focal point for future photovoltaic development.
While perovskite cells remain in the early stages of industrialization, both crystalline and amorphous silicon companies are actively investing in this sector. Various sources of capital have also entered the market, fueling widespread interest and accelerating commercialization.
Challenges and Path to Commercialization
Perovskite cells face challenges related to stability and manufacturing processes, which must be resolved to achieve large-scale production. Current pilot production lines are still in the trial stage. The primary obstacles include improving stability and conversion efficiency through better materials and processes. Key innovations, such as moisture- and gas-resistant materials, additives to enhance stability, passivation layers, and advanced equipment, are essential to overcoming these barriers. Breakthroughs in these areas will drive industry adoption, with distributed PV and consumer-grade products likely serving as initial application scenarios.
Tandem Cells: A Key to Unlocking Efficiency
Compared to single-junction cells, tandem configurations offer higher efficiency. Among these, silicon-perovskite four-terminal tandem cells are progressing faster toward commercialization due to their simpler structure and efficiency-boosting benefits for crystalline silicon cells. Two-terminal tandem cells, while more complex, streamline the cell structure and are better suited for pairing with HJT technology. Full-perovskite tandem cells represent the ultimate solution, offering even higher efficiency and lower costs.
Competition and Collaboration
Amorphous silicon pioneers, such as GCL Optoelectronics, Xinnano, and Microquanta, have led the charge in perovskite development, aiming to enter the PV industry through this new technology. Meanwhile, traditional crystalline silicon companies have entered the race slightly later, focusing on tandem technologies to enhance the efficiency of existing crystalline silicon cells.
Amorphous silicon companies face financial constraints and may accelerate the development of four-terminal tandem cells to ensure quicker returns. Conversely, crystalline silicon companies are likely to pursue acquisitions of innovative perovskite firms to integrate their advancements, leading to industry consolidation.
Despite their competition, crystalline and amorphous silicon companies share a common goal: advancing the industrialization of perovskite technology. Collaborative efforts are expected to dominate in the near term, as both sides work toward realizing the full potential of perovskite applications in the photovoltaic sector.
