Under the background of the global active promotion of clean energy transformation, the U.S. photovoltaic module industry is showing many new development trends. The installed capacity of U.S. PV is growing rapidly, and it is expected that the new installed capacity will exceed 60GW in 2025, which is expected to become the main force of new power generation. With the booming development of artificial intelligence, the demand for data center electricity is climbing sharply, and the compound annual growth rate of the global artificial intelligence industry scale from 2024 to 2030 is as high as 37%. U.S. data center energy consumption in 2024 reached 45GW, is expected to rise to 104 - 130GW by 2030, which makes the importance of photovoltaic energy more and more prominent. Although household PV is currently inhibited by the high interest rate environment, it is expected to stimulate the growth of household PV installations as interest rates fall. Moreover, U.S. users have relatively low sensitivity to module prices, which provides some space for the development of the PV module industry.
In order to promote the development of the local PV industry, the United States imposed high tariffs on imported photovoltaic products, prompting companies to build their own production capacity. At the same time, the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on the PV manufacturing and installation of subsidies to further stimulate the vitality of the industry. At present, the U.S. PV module production capacity is relatively centralized, but battery production capacity is relatively scarce. Many companies have opened the layout of the expansion plan. It is worth noting that the cost structure of the U.S. PV industry is significantly different from China, with relatively high labor costs, utility costs and depreciation costs of fixed assets.
In terms of technology route, HJT technology has become the focus of the U.S. PV industry. Compared with TOPcon technology, HJT technology has obvious advantages, which can reduce 20% of carbon emission, 70% of electricity consumption, 60% of labor cost and 20% - 60% of water consumption, which is very suitable for the needs of the U.S. photovoltaic industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency. With the help of subsidy policy, the profitability of PV module of HJT technology can reach about 5.6 cents / W, and the investment in equipment is expected to pay back in 1.2 years, and there is no patent risk, which attracts a number of overseas enterprises to lay out the HJT production capacity.
Chinese PV equipment has also shown strong competitiveness in the US market. Domestic equipment vendors leading technology, and global leading customers to maintain close cooperation, in the photovoltaic industry chain in all aspects of the equipment basically to realize the localization, such as jingsheng mechatronics single crystal furnace, high measurement shares of the slicing machine market share is in a leading position. With lower labor costs and a sound parts supply system, China's PV equipment is cost-effective, with fast delivery and excellent after-sales service. Although the U.S. raised tariffs on photovoltaic products, but the PV equipment set up a duty-free window period until May 31, 2025, which creates favorable conditions for China's photovoltaic equipment exports to the United States.
Take SEG Solar as an example, its factory in Houston has been fully operational and the first batch of 595W high-efficiency solar modules have been successfully shipped. This batch of SEG Solar YUKONN series modules adopts 72 cells, with an output power of 595W and an efficiency as high as 22.65%, and its double-sided double-glass design enables it to have excellent performance in different environments. With a first-year degradation rate of only 1% and a 30-year power performance warranty, SEG Solar's Houston plant has two 182mm and 210mm N-type module production lines with a total annual capacity of 2GW, which are currently operating at full capacity and have already secured a large number of orders for 2025, demonstrating the high level of market acceptance of its products. The 595W modules launched by the company are mainly based on 182mm cell technology, with the core advantages of low temperature coefficient (-0.29%/°C) and high bifacial ratio (85%), and the use of no main grid technology, which effectively reduces the light loss in the process of PV power generation and improves the overall energy efficiency.
Overall, the U.S. PV module industry is booming under the impetus of market demand and the drive of policy. HJT technology has a broad prospect, and China's PV equipment has ushered in a good opportunity to go overseas. In the future, the U.S. PV module industry will continue to innovate and upgrade, and play a more and more critical role in the global energy transformation process.
